OpenSea, the giant that once held 90% of the NFT market share, is finally welcoming its TGE amid a sluggish market and intensified competition. This article reviews the development history of OpenSea, analyzes the multiple reasons for choosing to launch the TGE at this time, including the progress of the SEC lawsuit, changes in the policy environment, and market competition pressure, and looks ahead to the potential market capitalization situation after the TGE. Facing the upcoming opportunity, it may be the last chance for ordinary users to participate and claim airdrops.
The world's largest NFT trading platform, OpenSea, is estimated to be approaching its TGE soon. A brief review shows that OpenSea was founded in 2017 and held 90% of the NFT market share in 2022. However, after Blur launched in October, its share has gradually been eroded, and now Blur's annual trading volume has far surpassed that of OpenSea. However, after the announcement was made, trading volume saw an increase.
There are a few reasons why they chose to issue tokens at such a low point in the NFT market.
The first is that the lawsuit with the SEC is coming to a close. In August last year, the SEC issued a Wells notice to OpenSea, believing that certain NFTs traded on the OpenSea platform may be considered unregistered securities and thus subject to securities regulations. Here, we must emphasize again that according to the "Howey Test" by the U.S. Supreme Court, if an asset involves an investment of money, a common enterprise, and profits expected primarily from the efforts of others, it may be considered a security. This is often mentioned because I believe it is the biggest issue affecting the development of Web3.
The second reason I think is the crypto-friendly policies after Trump took office. Issuing tokens at this time carries relatively low risk, and with OpenSea being a domestic company in the U.S. and having once been a leader in the field, the opportunity has matured with many big names supporting it.
The third reason is that in a market that is constantly being eroded, it is difficult to gain user support without leveraging a token economy. Moreover, Blur is also doing well and has the support of tokens.
Now, let's talk about the market capitalization situation after OpenSea's TGE, which mainly looks at three aspects.
First is the current institutional valuation, which is $13.3 billion based on the last round of financing.
Second is the protocol's revenue situation, which was around $20 million last year.
Third is the comparison of the market capitalization with the competitor, Blur. Blur's annual trading volume is nearly three times that of OpenSea, but in terms of annual fees paid by users, OpenSea is nearly three times that of Blur. Blur's FDV is $400 million; how much do you think OpenSea will be?
An interesting thing is that on a decentralized prediction platform, someone has posted a prediction of what the FDV will be on the first day of SEA's launch. The current predicted amount is already close to $300,000.
After all this, is there anyone who doesn't know how to use OpenSea? Before the official TGE, come and try it out; you might just get an airdrop.
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