Web3 is currently rife with chaos, but this is a necessary path for emerging industries. This article divides Web3 into exploration, integration, and maturity phases by comparing it to the development of Web2, analyzes its current "bubble" stage, and looks forward to possible paths for integration and maturity, providing action references for investors and practitioners.
Introduction
The eight major issues of Web3—failure of value investment, proliferation of meme coins, unclear regulation, etc.—have deterred many. However, these problems are a necessary part of the growth of emerging industries. By comparing the development of Web2 (traditional internet), we can categorize Web3 into exploration, integration, and maturity phases, clearly assessing its current stage and future trends.
- Exploration Phase: Chaotic "Barbaric Growth"
Characteristics:
Technological breakthroughs: Technologies such as blockchain, smart contracts, DeFi, and NFTs have emerged, but business models are immature, with many projects relying on hype for funding.
Speculation rampant: Meme coins, celebrity tokens, and pump-and-dump schemes are frequent, with the market filled with short-term wealth effects.
Regulation unclear: Global policy divergence, projects operating in gray areas, and high regulatory risks.
Web2 benchmark: The internet "bubble period" of the 1990s. Companies like Pets.com and Webvan raised funds crazily but had no profitable models, ultimately going bankrupt. The internet bubble fostered a speculative frenzy while planting the seeds for giants like Amazon and Google.
Current state of Web3: Web3 is currently in the exploration phase, similar to the 1990s internet. Bubbles and opportunities coexist, speculation overshadows value, but future giants may be emerging.
- Integration Phase: Rational Selection and Infrastructure Development
Characteristics:
Capital rationality: The capital market no longer chases "storytelling" projects, and low-quality projects are eliminated.
Top players rise: Layer 1, Layer 2 ecosystems, and DeFi leaders build stable infrastructure.
Regulation improves: Compliant projects gain recognition, and the industry gradually becomes standardized.
Application emergence: Applications that genuinely address needs begin to appear.
Web2 benchmark: The internet reconstruction period from 2000 to 2010. After the bubble burst, many startups went bankrupt, but Amazon and Google survived and thrived. After 2008, the mobile internet gave rise to applications like Facebook, Uber, and Instagram, meeting real needs.
Web3 outlook: Web3 has not yet entered the integration phase. If low-quality projects are cleared in the coming years, and leading ecosystems (like Ethereum and Solana) improve infrastructure, applications similar to a Web3 version of "Uber" may emerge, leading the industry into a selection phase.
- Maturity Phase: Large-scale Popularization and Industry Integration
Characteristics:
Technological integration: Web3 deeply integrates with traditional industries, allowing users to use it without understanding blockchain.
Phenomenal applications: Large-scale implementations of Web3 social, on-chain identity, and decentralized financial infrastructure.
Industry stability: Continuous influx of capital and talent, with Web3 becoming part of mainstream internet.
Web2 benchmark: The internet maturity phase after 2010. The proliferation of smartphones, along with cloud computing, AI, and big data, led to the emergence of global applications like AWS, Netflix, and TikTok, changing lifestyles.
Web3 outlook: Web3 will need to wait for phenomenal applications to be implemented, with technology seamlessly integrated into daily life, to enter the maturity phase and become an extension of the mainstream internet.
Conclusion
Web3 is currently in the "exploration phase," akin to the internet of the 1990s, filled with speculation and chaos, but also nurturing future giants. In the coming years, the industry will gradually move towards the "integration phase," with most projects failing and a few quality projects becoming core infrastructure. Only when large-scale applications are implemented will Web3 enter the "maturity phase" and achieve widespread adoption. Understanding the growth path of Web3 can help investors and practitioners choose their participation methods more rationally: be wary of bubbles in the short term and focus on potential projects in the long term. May everyone find their own opportunities in the wave of Web3!
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